US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1497

2024-06-30 17:56:05

   Mesoscale Discussion 1497
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...the central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302154Z - 302330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and hail threats should persist along
   and east of the lee trough this evening. While a watch is uncertain
   over most of the region amid isolated to widely spaced storms and a
   relatively lower-end severe threat, we are monitoring for a small
   severe thunderstorm watch if greater storm concentration becomes

   DISCUSSION...Isolated, widely spaced thunderstorms have developed
   from northeast WY to southeast CO within the western plume of 50s
   surface dew points across the central High Plains. Thus far, a
   measured wind gust of 65 mph occurred with a cell crossing I-25
   north of Cheyenne last hour, with a 1.5 inch hail report separately
   in Platte County, WY. Relatively greater buoyancy should be confined
   to the east-southeast CO portion amid low to mid 60s surface dew
   points across the Raton Mesa to Palmer Divide. Deep-layer shear was
   sampled at 30-35 kts per the Cheyenne and Denver VWP data, which
   will support transient supercell structures within the more robust
   updrafts. But relatively warm mid-level temperatures, especially
   across CO where -4 to -6 C at 500 mb is more prevalent, will
   probably limit hail sizes and parcel accelerations to some extent.
   Early afternoon guidance suggests convection within the CO portion
   may persist longer into the evening, aided by the larger buoyancy
   and modest increase in low-level flow. If in increase in clustering
   becomes more readily apparent, a small severe thunderstorm watch
   will be considered.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 06/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44620455 41740348 38490288 37260406 37390522 38850539
               39500498 41440497 43540522 44170528 44620455 

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