Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1496

   Mesoscale Discussion 1496
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 042049Z - 042315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected between
   22-00Z. The primary concerns will be severe wind gusts and large
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery depicts an
   increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus field evolving at the
   nose of a robust heat axis extending into northwest OK. Additional
   deepening cumulus is evident along a remnant outflow boundary in
   south-central KS into northern OK. Over the next few hours,
   continued diurnal heating should promote thunderstorm development in
   these zones of mesoscale ascent. 

   The pre-convective environment is characterized by a warm/moist PBL
   (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
   the DDC 18Z sounding). The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy
   and around 40 kt of effective shear (with modest low-level hodograph
   curvature) will initially promote semi-discrete supercells capable
   of producing severe wind gusts and very large hail. While uncertain,
   a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out with any boundary/storm
   interactions. With time, increasing storm coverage and congealing
   cold pools should promote upscale growth into organized clusters,
   with an increasing risk for scattered severe/damaging gusts with
   southward extent. A watch is likely this afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35909567 35739628 35659703 35709801 35909890 36279943
               36699957 36979945 37219919 37459835 37679589 37539539
               37229511 36639504 36209520 35909567 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN