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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1491

2024-06-30 14:28:02

Mesoscale Discussion 1491
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1491
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...southern
   West Virginia...far western Virginia...and western North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301816Z - 302015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal threat for strong to severe gusts will remain
   possible with thunderstorm activity through the afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage
   across portions of eastern Kentucky into western Virginia this
   afternoon. The air mass in this region has warmed and become more
   unstable through the morning, with around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   in recent surface objective analysis. This is also apparent in radar
   and satellite trends for in echo tops and cloud top cooling with
   ongoing thunderstorm activity. Upper-level flow remains modest
   across the region, waning further with south and eastward extent
   into far eastern Tennessee/Carolinas. As such, deep layer shear for
   organization remains weak, though around 30-35 kts of effective
   shear is analyzed across eastern Kentucky. As such, instances of
   severe wind should remain fairly isolated and localized. A watch is
   unlikely to be needed but trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37318629 37688591 37848554 37768414 37878235 37668154
               36718144 35558187 35398221 35208335 35138488 37318629 

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