Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1491

   Mesoscale Discussion 1491
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...Much of Virginia...Maryland...and eastern West
   Virginia,

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 041649Z - 041915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
   while developing eastward through the afternoon. The primary concern
   will be scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along the
   high terrain in WV and southwestern VA this afternoon. Continued
   diurnal heating and orographic lift will favor increasing
   thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Downstream, strong
   diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (upper 60s to
   lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
   12Z soundings) will support thunderstorm intensification through the
   afternoon. While fairly weak deep-layer shear may limit overall
   thunderstorm organization, the aforementioned environment will favor
   a mix of cells and loosely organized clusters capable of producing
   scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts across much of VA and
   eventually into MD. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for this
   activity.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37548059 38018032 39057934 39427883 39597832 39647744
               39547686 39357649 38907637 38057671 37237763 36667909
               36688013 37028055 37548059 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN