Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1489

   Mesoscale Discussion 1489
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Kansas into western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041509Z - 041745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms may persist and
   eventually intensify further as it develops from Kansas into
   Missouri today. Damaging wind gusts are the most probable threat.

   DISCUSSION...The remnants of an overnight MCS continues to push
   across KS this morning, with sporadic severe gusts still being
   measured. This eastward surge is now interacting with a leading zone
   of thunderstorms over northeast KS which are mostly elevated above
   cooler outflow.

   Recent radar trends do show a relatively stronger area of storms
   moving toward the Emporia KS area, which is right along the
   instability gradient. This gradient extends eastward into
   west-central MO, and a very moist and unstable air mass exists to
   the south. The 12Z SGF sounding show relatively steep midlevel lapse
   rates, and when modified for current surface conditions over
   southeast KS, yields over 4000 J/kg MUCAPE. 

   Although low-level southerly winds are forecast to remain weak,
   satellite imagery shows strong heating ahead of the ongoing
   activity, which will further destabilize the air mass. As such, it
   appears likely that the MCS will persist, and a watch may be needed
   if further strengthening occurs.

   ..Jewell.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37419682 37779647 37999636 38089591 38329507 38609439
               38849387 38769315 38439289 37739285 37239313 36959391
               36869482 36959594 37139676 37419682 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN