Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1488

   Mesoscale Discussion 1488
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0934 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...Maine and New Hampshire

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 301434Z - 301630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
   into early afternoon. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be
   possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have already developed this
   morning across portions of southern Quebec ahead of an
   eastward-advancing cold front. Downstream from this activity,
   modest/gradual destabilization is occurring across NH/ME where
   heating is occurring amid scattered/broken clouds. Stronger heating
   and richer boundary-layer moisture will likely remain focused across
   parts of NH into western/coastal ME. Nevertheless, strong vertical
   shear will remain in place over the area and instability will be
   sufficient for bands/clusters of strong/severe storms into the
   afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary
   layer with steep low level lapse rates amid 45+ kt effective shear
   by early afternoon, supporting damaging wind potential. Straight,
   elongated hodographs also suggest hail may be possible with any more
   discrete storm mode. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
   needed for portions of the area within the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   46936760 45146690 44086809 43087095 43317167 43677184
               45357128 47006981 47196947 47226831 46936760