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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1488

2024-06-30 10:36:04

Mesoscale Discussion 1488
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1488
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0934 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Areas affected...Maine and New Hampshire

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 301434Z - 301630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
   into early afternoon. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be
   possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have already developed this
   morning across portions of southern Quebec ahead of an
   eastward-advancing cold front. Downstream from this activity,
   modest/gradual destabilization is occurring across NH/ME where
   heating is occurring amid scattered/broken clouds. Stronger heating
   and richer boundary-layer moisture will likely remain focused across
   parts of NH into western/coastal ME. Nevertheless, strong vertical
   shear will remain in place over the area and instability will be
   sufficient for bands/clusters of strong/severe storms into the
   afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary
   layer with steep low level lapse rates amid 45+ kt effective shear
   by early afternoon, supporting damaging wind potential. Straight,
   elongated hodographs also suggest hail may be possible with any more
   discrete storm mode. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
   needed for portions of the area within the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46936760 45146690 44086809 43087095 43317167 43677184
               45357128 47006981 47196947 47226831 46936760 

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