Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1484

   Mesoscale Discussion 1484
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040229Z - 040430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing across northern Indiana
   and far southwest Lower Michigan may pose an isolated hail and
   severe wind threat through late evening. Storm
   organization/longevity is expected to remain sufficiently limited to
   preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development have been
   monitored across northern IN over the past 30-60 minutes as a modest
   increase in the low-level jet augments isentropic ascent over a
   residual outflow boundary draped across the region. Much of this
   convection is likely elevated in nature, but latest RAP/HRRR
   forecast soundings depict nearly uninhibited most-unstable parcels
   between 925-850 mb where ascent is likely being maximized. As such,
   further thunderstorm development appears likely in the coming hours.
   Storm motions generally to the cool side of the boundary, coupled
   with a high probability for destructive storm interactions, suggest
   that the potential for long-lived and/or well-organized convection
   is low. However, effective bulk shear values are estimated to be
   around 25-30 knots within the zone of ascent, and MUCAPE values
   remain near 2000 J/kg. This parameter space could support at least
   transient organized convection capable of posing a risk of large
   hail and perhaps damaging winds in proximity to the surface boundary
   for the next few hours. In general, increasingly clustered storm
   modes should modulate the overall severe threat and negate the need
   for watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41068469 41018504 40998658 41038676 41218693 41428699
               41658695 41798682 41948664 42138646 42138517 42048486
               41798462 41388457 41068469 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN