Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1483

   Mesoscale Discussion 1483
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
   Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...452...

   Valid 040216Z - 040415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449, 452
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue to
   be possible over the next few hours from parts of north-central
   Kansas northeastward into southwest Iowa. A watch extension in area
   may be needed to the south and east of the current watches.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
   ongoing near an axis of strong instability, where surface dewpoints
   range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Across this moist
   airmass, the RAP shows an axis of instability with MLCAPE in the
   3500 to 4500 J/kg range. The instability along with large-scale
   ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough is helping to
   maintain storm intensity within the line. The line will move slowly
   southeastward into northeast Kansas, far northwest Missouri and
   southwest Iowa over the next few hours. Although a severe threat is
   expected to continue through late this evening, the threat could
   become a bit more isolated as inhibition gradually increases.

   ..Broyles.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41689486 41709538 41519589 41059625 40189689 39589786
               39279875 39139980 38869998 38549984 38309911 38419739
               38949587 39469508 40339441 41059420 41509445 41689486 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN