Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1481

   Mesoscale Discussion 1481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Southwestern South Dakota...Northwestern and
   North-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446...450...

   Valid 040027Z - 040230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446, 450
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
   will likely continue over the next few hours across parts of
   southwestern South Dakota into northwest and north-central Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...On surface analysis, an axis of low-level convergence
   is located from western Nebraska northward into southwestern South
   Dakota, along which surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to lower
   60s F. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near
   this axis of convergence, along which the RAP has a corridor of
   MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the North Platte
   and Rapid City WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 knot
   range. This environment will support a severe threat this evening.
   Supercells will be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind
   gusts. Short intense line segments will also be capable of strong to
   severe gusts. The threat will eventually move southeastward into
   north-central Nebraska later this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42139945 42509964 43160013 43780065 44320145 44550203
               44570259 44360335 44010390 43780397 43540385 43110319
               42320245 41560190 41260125 41310063 41499990 41839956
               42139945 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN