Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1481

   Mesoscale Discussion 1481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast PA...NJ...far northern MD/DE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

   Valid 292238Z - 300015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe wind gusts from 50-65 mph will
   remain possible, mainly focused across southeast Pennsylvania and
   adjacent states. How far downstream this extends east of the
   Delaware Valley is uncertain, with forecast expectation of weakening
   farther east into New Jersey.

   DISCUSSION...A surging accelerated portion of a short-line segment
   has bowed across a part of east-central to southeast Pennsylvania.
   Its current eastward track will result in movement into a more
   weakly unstable air mass. But given its organization, a damaging
   wind threat will probably spread east of WW 484 into NJ before
   diminishing. Meanwhile, supercell structure exists within the
   tail-end robust updraft in south-central PA. With a plume of low 90s
   surface temperatures emanating north over central MD, it is
   plausible the lagging portion of the convective line may undergo a
   similar acceleration and bowing surge. This could potentially impact
   parts of far northern MD/DE, adjacent to WWs 482/484.

   ..Grams.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40767627 40817526 40707448 40637413 40057407 39677546
               39507641 39647702 40067726 40767627