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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1480

2024-06-29 18:12:02

Mesoscale Discussion 1480
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1480
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern IL and IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292210Z - 292345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may develop and remain
   quasi-stationary across parts of Indiana and eastern Illinois. With
   an expected localized nature to the severe threat and low confidence
   in sustaining a longer-duration risk, severe thunderstorm watch
   issuance appears unlikely but trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of a small bowing cluster over southeast
   IN, residual outflow to its west/north converging with a leading
   cold front have supported isolated thunderstorm development across
   parts of IN into east-central/southeast IL. Much of central IN is
   void of cu in the wake of this cluster, suggesting that storms that
   can be sustained to the west and north will struggle to spread east.
   Deep-layer shear is stronger across northern IN, with MLCAPE greater
   back into IL, which will aid in an isolated severe hail/wind threat.
   However, low-level convergence along this leading boundary should
   wane for a time before a reinforcing cold front, currently over
   northern IL, shifts southeast later this evening.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39308596 38908603 38568702 38568818 38778893 39358889
               39738891 40488769 41318640 41638586 41768547 41608511
               41258513 40838595 40258698 39928740 39308596 

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