Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1480

   Mesoscale Discussion 1480
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...West-central and north-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032337Z - 040130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible
   across parts of west-central and north-central Kansas this evening.
   A weather watch will need to be considered.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over
   the western Oklahoma Panhandle with an axis of low-level convergence
   extending northeastward across western and northern Kansas. Surface
   dewpoints near and to the east of the axis are in the mid 60s to mid
   70s F. This is contributing to a strongly unstable airmass with the
   RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. As a mid-level
   shortwave trough and vorticity max moves eastward across the central
   High Plains early this evening, thunderstorms are expected to
   develop along and near the instability axis. The latest WSR-88D VWP
   at Dodge City has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with some directional
   shear in the 1 to 4 km layer. This should support supercell
   development. Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large
   hail and severe wind gusts. Severe gusts may also occur with any
   intense short line segment that can become organized.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38140144 37930148 37600127 37430082 37370025 37629928
               38399840 38939754 39639717 39969749 40049812 40059867
               40009925 39659994 39020063 38480118 38140144 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN