Mesoscale Discussion 0148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and north
central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061957Z - 062230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development may gradually initiate through 3-6 PM CST. This may
include supercells accompanied by large hail, and at least some risk
for tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Though the dryline may remain relatively diffuse, it
appears to be coming at least a bit better defined near the I-35
corridor of Oklahoma, southward into portions of western North
Texas. Low-level convergence along it is generally weak, and the
primary short wave perturbation emerging from the southern Great
Basin is tending to slowly pivot northeast of the Colorado Rockies
into the central Great Plains. However, aided by a corridor of
low-level moistening near the interface of the stronger
boundary-layer warming, notable destabilization is ongoing as
mid-level inhibition erodes.
This is evident in 18Z raobs from Lamont, Norman and Fort Worth, and
it appears that, with continued low-level warm advection, isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms may begin to initiate during the
next few hours. Within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt
south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, the evolution of a few
supercells appears possible, which should tend to take on a more
prominent easterly propagation as they intensify.
Given the conditional and convective instability present, these
storms will pose a risk for large hail and localized strong surface
gusts. Low-level hodographs appear at least conditionally
supportive of tornadoes. However, the extent of this potential
remains unclear, particularly given the downstream low-level
subsidence and drying forecast in the Rapid Refresh output,
including forecast soundings, through early evening.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33119863 33799849 35479780 36749744 36769563 35989535
34819582 33679631 32589708 32319832 33119863
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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