Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1479

   Mesoscale Discussion 1479
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Northwest to north-central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032307Z - 040100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may pose a threat for sporadic
   damaging/severe winds over the next few hours. Trends will be
   monitored, and watch issuance is possible if a more widespread
   severe wind threat materializes.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across eastern IN/western OH has been
   monitored over the past hour or so and has exhibited
   pulse/multi-cell behavior. More recently, convection has been
   rapidly developing along the southern extent of the outflow
   associated with the MCS that recently impacted the Detroit area.
   This uptick in activity is likely attributable to the outflow
   boundary impeding on a fairly buoyant and uninhibited air mass in
   place across northwest to north-central OH. Further thunderstorm
   development and clustering/upscale growth appears likely as the
   outflow from the MCS and the cold pool from the west-central OH
   cluster begin to interact and spread east. 

   Although ample buoyancy is noted downstream, regional VWPs show
   decreasing mid-level flow with southward extent from MI into OH with
   only around 15-20 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear observed across OH (as
   compared to 25-35 knots further north in MI). Consequently, the
   likelihood of the emergence of a well-organized MCS similar is
   limited; however, the downstream environment should still support
   strong to severe downburst winds over the next few hours before the
   onset of nocturnal cooling. Based on the environmental parameter
   space and output from recent high-res guidance, wind speeds will
   most likely remain in the 50-65 mph range. Trends will continue to
   be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if convection begins to
   exceed these expectations.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40158483 40308506 40568515 40778500 41158427 41618305
               41458235 41448196 41478166 41298155 40968158 40688171
               40408193 40158230 40078452 40158483 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH