2024-06-29 17:46:03
1719697996
Mesoscale Discussion 1479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292144Z - 292315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
anticipated within the next few hours. The stronger storms may
produce at least a few severe gusts, and an instance or two of large
hail also cannot be ruled out. Convective trends are being monitored
for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to sag southward across the
southern Plains, with agitated CU and hints at convective initiation
noted across northern portions of the TX Panhandle into
north-central OK. South of the front, the boundary layer has
deepened, with surface temperatures exceeding 100 F. The 30-40 F
surface temperature/dewpoint spreads suggest that any storms that
form will be high-based, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km.
As such, despite moderate vertical wind shear ahead of the front,
adequate buoyancy (i.e. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and the steep
low-level lapse rates will foster severe gust potential with the
strongest downbursts via evaporative cooling beneath the high cloud
bases. A couple of the initial multicellular updrafts may also
briefly produce large hail, especially if any storm can become
sustained immediately behind the cold front, where effective bulk
shear is exceeding 40 kts.
It is unclear how widespread the severe gust threat will become
given limited vertical wind shear ahead of the surface front. As
such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for locally
higher severe gust potential and subsequent need for a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 35440233 36160042 36249877 35969769 35619754 35309851
35180007 35030156 35000198 35110230 35440233