Mesoscale Discussion 1477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...southern New York...and northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448... Valid 032231Z - 040030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is increasing across eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York (including the New York City metro), and northern New Jersey as storms approach the coast. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KBGM and KDIX depict an initially broken band of thunderstorms beginning to show the early signs of cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth. Concurrently, increasing MRMS VIL values and cooling cloud-top temperatures have been observed over the past hour, further hinting that organization/intensification is occurring. More recently, a 75 mph gust was observed at Scranton, PA. Regional VWPs from central NY have been sampling fairly strong (40-50 knot) mid-level winds that are supporting stronger deep-layer wind shear than depicted by recent RAP mesoanalyses, and is likely promoting the recent intensification trend. Consequently, given the development of a deeper/more cohesive cold pool and strong deep-layer shear in proximity to ongoing convection, it seems likely that the potential for severe winds (most likely 55-75 mph) will persist downstream for the next couple of hours as storms approach the coast. Based on latest storm tracks, this band should reach the NY/NJ coast within the next 2-3 hours. ..Moore.. 07/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 40917669 40977631 41217577 41437542 41577506 41607470 41047342 40817325 40587338 40497372 40307393 40147399 40037408 39977446 40017511 40127561 40357613 40587672 40737687 40917669 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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