Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1468

   Mesoscale Discussion 1468
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...western South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 031807Z - 031830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to persist near the
   Black Hills and develop southeast through the afternoon into early
   evening. Large hail up to 2.5 inches and damaging gusts are
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over the Black Hills have gradually
   intensified early this afternoon in a modest upslope flow regime.
   Temperatures remain somewhat cool across western South Dakota due to
   the influence of overnight outflow, but stronger heating should
   continue into the afternoon amid scattered cloudiness. Steep
   midlevel lapse rates per SPC Mesoanalysis are aiding in 1500-2000
   J/kg MUCAPE. Meanwhile, stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting
   effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt, which will favor
   supercells. Large hail will be possible with discrete convection. It
   is uncertain how convection will evolve with southeast extent, but
   convective coverage may increase along outflow draped northwest to
   southeast across western into south-central South Dakota. Some
   potential for upscale growth could occur later this afternoon or
   early evening with an accompanying increasing risk for severe gusts.
   A severe thunderstorm watch is expected soon.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44680402 45120378 45240319 45060230 44110113 43620072
               43070093 42970239 43070365 43850404 44330402 44680402 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN