Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1468

   Mesoscale Discussion 1468
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 480...

   Valid 290227Z - 290400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 480.
   Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado remains
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...The severe threat is generally confined to two main
   areas of convection. The first is in far eastern KS with a dominant
   supercell, and the other is with a supercell over extreme
   northwestern MO. Both of these storms persist amid an axis of strong
   buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As
   such, supercell structures may be maintained for another hour or so,
   before upscale growth into storm clusters occurs, accompanied by a
   continued threat for severe gusts and large hail. A tornado also
   remains possible. However, the supercell over eastern KS appears to
   be HP and is potentially merging with nearby convection. Some of the
   latest HRRR runs depict the possibility of ongoing storms merging
   into a bow-echo structure. Should this occur, severe gusts will
   become the main threat.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38979659 39629602 40199552 40519511 40549453 40459404
               40429387 39719311 39079324 38369415 38089493 38099574
               38239612 38979659