Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1466

   Mesoscale Discussion 1466
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0808 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of western Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290108Z - 290245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible over the
   next couple of hours over western into central IA. Large hail and
   damaging gusts are the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a baroclinic
   boundary in western Iowa, where at least a few landspouts have
   already occurred. These storms are intensifying in an environment
   characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk
   shear. While landspouts remain possible over the next hour or so,
   the ongoing storms should move away from the boundary with a
   continued threat of marginal severe hail and wind. It is unclear how
   prevalent the severe threat will be in the long term, but convective
   trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40659583 41549505 42069442 42049377 41589302 41049289
               40599317 40449402 40479499 40659583