Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1466

   Mesoscale Discussion 1466
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania into southwestern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031625Z - 031830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
   across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southwestern New York,
   some of which will be capable of 55-70 MPH wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun developing in far northwestern
   Pennsylvania amidst a general trend of deepening boundary layer
   cumulus on visible satellite. Surface temperatures have already
   risen into the low 90s F, which already exceeds the estimated
   convective temperature from the 12Z PIT sounding. The expectation is
   that convective coverage should increase over the next few hours,
   especially across northern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. 

   These storms will exist in an environment characterized by both
   steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates, but generally weak
   deep-layer shear of 10-15 kts. While the lack of shear will support
   primarily disorganized thunderstorms and loose clusters, the steep
   lapse rates, modest precipitable water content, and high LCL heights
   will support strong thunderstorm downdrafts capable of winds of
   55-70 MPH. 

   Both the 12Z HREF and the latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble
   suggests there could be multiple rounds of convective development
   off of the Great Lakes, and some of these storms may loosely cluster
   into bowing outflow segments. However, the uncertainty in convective
   organization and spatial coverage of potential damaging wind gusts
   limits confidence in watch issuance at this time. Conditions will
   continue to be monitored for a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Halbert/Hart.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40908015 41118052 41518079 41768081 41968055 42137996
               42367954 42647907 42887889 43057888 43077830 42967751
               42747676 42677664 42537649 42367635 42197626 42017623
               41797622 41617626 41397640 41107678 40927728 40707824
               40607870 40597930 40657965 40807997 40908015 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH