US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1465

   Mesoscale Discussion 1465
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 480...

   Valid 290030Z - 290200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 480.
   Severe gusts remain the primary threat in the near term, with large
   hail also possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out if storms can
   develop or move into an environment characterized by better
   low-level shear.

   DISCUSSION...Intense multicell and transient supercell structures
   continue to progress eastward across northeastern KS amid a strongly
   unstable environment (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 00Z TOP RAOB). Regional
   radar suggests these storms are exceeding 50 kft in height, with the
   Geary County, KS having a history of severe hail and wind gusts
   (including a recent report of an ASOS-measured 75 mph gust). Despite
   around 45 kts of effective bulk shear present (00Z TOP RAOB),
   regional VADs depict modest low-level shear over eastern KS, which
   may be why the ongoing storms have been outflow dominant, struggling
   to maintain classic supercell structure. As such, severe gusts
   should remain the main threat, at least in the near term. Severe
   hail will also be possible with updrafts reaching peak intensity. 

   A southwesterly 925-850 mb low-level jet is forecast to intensify
   through evening, which should boost low-level hodograph size and
   curvature, If relatively discrete storms can avoid being undercut by
   outflow and ingest greater low-level shear this evening (before the
   boundary-layer stabilizes), a tornado may still occur.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39129734 39819634 40429439 40499320 40109295 39389292
               38939372 38579479 38359562 38479641 38689705 39129734 

Source link