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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1463

Mesoscale Discussion 1463
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1463
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0508 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern into north-central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282208Z - 282345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or wind gusts may
   accompany the stronger storms through the remainder of the
   afternoon. The severe threat should remain isolated overall, so a WW
   issuance is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an overall increase
   in storm coverage and intensity across portions of northwestern into
   north-central CO, where observed MESH cores are suggesting hail may
   be approaching 1 inch in diameter in spots. These storms are
   intensifying within a adequately sheared troposphere (modestly
   elongated hodographs based on RAP forecasting soundings), with low
   and mid-level lapse rates in the 9+ C/km range. As such, strong and
   sustained updrafts should obtain multicell and supercell structures
   through the afternoon, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and
   wind. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
   is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40281024 41130821 41220623 40650505 40010498 39440547
               39220678 39380816 39620888 40281024 

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