Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1463

   Mesoscale Discussion 1463
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast NE into western IA and extreme southeast
   SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

   Valid 030646Z - 030815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and isolated hail remain possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Persistent convection has remained relatively
   disorganized thus far across parts of northeast NE into western IA.
   However, some east-southeastward propagation has recently been noted
   west of Sioux City, which may be an indication of expanding outflow
   and a gradually strengthening cold pool. If this trend continues, a
   somewhat more organized storm cluster may evolve and move along or
   just north of a front draped across western IA, with some uptick in
   damaging-wind potential. Otherwise, MUCAPE of above 2000 J/kg will
   continue to support isolated hail potential with the strongest
   embedded updrafts overnight.

   ..Dean.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42919680 42759515 42589422 42399386 42139381 41809437
               41749470 41649533 41609626 41699680 41869767 42379771
               42569769 42919680 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN