Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1462

   Mesoscale Discussion 1462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southwestern
   Nebraska...northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282056Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered high based storms to develop through
   the afternoon/evening with potential for damaging winds and large
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a region of towering cumulus
   across southeastern Wyoming into the Front Range in Colorado, with a
   few recent attempts at thunderstorm initiation. This largely region
   remains under the influence of mid-level capping, though recent
   radar observations did indicate cells producing lightning briefly in
   the Nebraska panhandle. Trends in cumulus development and several
   initiation attempts indicate mid-level capping may be eroding, with
   potential for additional thunderstorm development within the next
   1-2 hours. Low-level moisture is meager, with high-based elevated
   cells expected that likely need to move into the richer low-level
   moisture and increasing deep layer shear to the east across western
   Nebraska/Kansas before become more organized. Damaging winds and
   large hail will be possible. This area is being monitored for trends
   for watch potential through the afternoon/evening.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40410440 40690431 41760277 41720214 41590120 40820075
               40080051 39320049 38590067 38510157 39290326 40000446
               40410440