Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1462

   Mesoscale Discussion 1462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

   Valid 030543Z - 030715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat may spread eastward into the early
   overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...A small, bowing storm cluster is moving across
   southwest SD as of 0535 UTC. This cluster is likely somewhat
   elevated, but MUCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg and moderate deep-layer
   shear (as analyzed in recent objective mesoanalyses) within a
   low-level warm-advection regime will help to maintain this cluster
   in the short term as it moves eastward. Recent observed wind gusts
   have generally been subsevere, and this trend may continue given the
   downstream low-level stability. However, localized severe gusts
   cannot be ruled out given the current organized nature of this
   cluster. Isolated hail will also be possible, though the primarily
   linear mode may temper this threat. 

   The current expectation is for the severe threat to remain
   relatively isolated. However, this system will continue to be
   monitored for any uptick in the organized-severe threat (and any
   need for downstream watch issuance) into the overnight hours.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43590179 43620179 43990177 44280186 44410143 44460070
               44400014 44190009 43999999 43810010 43600030 43550104
               43590179 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN