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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1462

Mesoscale Discussion 1462
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1462
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southwestern
   Nebraska...northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282056Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered high based storms to develop through
   the afternoon/evening with potential for damaging winds and large

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a region of towering cumulus
   across southeastern Wyoming into the Front Range in Colorado, with a
   few recent attempts at thunderstorm initiation. This largely region
   remains under the influence of mid-level capping, though recent
   radar observations did indicate cells producing lightning briefly in
   the Nebraska panhandle. Trends in cumulus development and several
   initiation attempts indicate mid-level capping may be eroding, with
   potential for additional thunderstorm development within the next
   1-2 hours. Low-level moisture is meager, with high-based elevated
   cells expected that likely need to move into the richer low-level
   moisture and increasing deep layer shear to the east across western
   Nebraska/Kansas before become more organized. Damaging winds and
   large hail will be possible. This area is being monitored for trends
   for watch potential through the afternoon/evening.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40410440 40690431 41760277 41720214 41590120 40820075
               40080051 39320049 38590067 38510157 39290326 40000446

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