Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1461

   Mesoscale Discussion 1461
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Illinois...Far Northwest Indiana...Far
   Southwest Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030443Z - 030645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat may continue for a few more hours across
   parts of northern Illinois and far southwest Michigan. Isolated
   severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The threat may be
   enough to consider watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary
   extending from eastern Iowa east-northeastward into northern
   Illinois, along which an east-to-west corridor of strong to severe
   storms is ongoing. The storms are located along a relatively tight
   gradient of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated by the
   RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition, the storms are
   located along the southern edge of a 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet,
   which is providing enough deep-layer shear for organized storms.
   Low-level lapse rates are still steep along this instability
   gradient, suggesting that a wind-damage threat will continue to be
   possible with the stronger storms. Hail could also occur. As
   instability decreases in the early overnight period, the severe
   threat should eventually decrease.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41799016 42198865 42538656 42528599 42458571 42258558
               42088564 41878595 41738638 41438761 41248855 40939034
               40949089 41089109 41379103 41799016 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN