Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Areas affected...northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...far
southeast Nebraska into central Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 282023Z - 282300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail and
locally damaging gusts are expected after 22/23Z, from northeast
Kansas into central Iowa. A tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate warming continuing ahead
of a cold front which extends from near the NE/IA border into
central KS. Meanwhile, a diffuse warm front extends from western IA
southward along the KS/MO border, with substantial cloud cover
limiting heating over much of IA and MO.
Recently, clouds have thinned into southwest IA, northwest MO and
northeast KS, with a plume of steep lapse rates developing from the
southwest. As temperatures have risen into the mid 90s F near the KS
portion of the front, CIN has been reduced to negligible
proportions. However, lift is currently weak.
Farther north into northwest MO and IA, temperatures do continue to
slowly warm, with ample boundary layer moisture present. Eventually,
lift along the front should interact with the increasingly uncapped
air mass and allow for a few strong to severe storms to develop.
Deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt along with modest low-level SRH within
the warm advection zone may support supercells, with large hail the
most likely severe mode. However, 0-1 km SRH over 100 m2/s2 may be
sufficient to support a brief tornado threat in a cell or two,
although the capping inversion and overall lack of strong upper
support suggests this threat should remain isolated.
..Jewell.. 06/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39609355 39159411 39019503 39139600 39439636 40069654
40519615 41319559 41739548 42119531 42359459 42379371
42209344 41909323 41329302 40649310 39609355