Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1457

   Mesoscale Discussion 1457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

   Valid 030051Z - 030145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
   central and eastern Nebraska this evening. Severe wind gusts and
   isolated large hail will be possible. Weather watch issuance may be
   needed this evening.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
   in place over central and eastern Nebraska, where many observation
   sites have dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is contributing to
   strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE ranging from around
   4500 J/kg in southern Nebraska to near 2500 J/kg in northeastern
   Nebraska. To the west of this axis of instability, a mid-level
   shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central
   High Plains. As this feature moves eastward into the central Plains
   and as the low-level jet strengthens, convective coverage is
   expected to increase. Along and near the axis of instability, the
   RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, suggesting that a
   severe threat will be possible. The primary threat will be damaging
   wind gusts, but isolated large hail will also be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40139832 40799724 41589662 42169654 42469669 42669713
               42759800 42559912 42050014 41430059 41020062 40640050
               40270008 40039927 40139832 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN