US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1446

   Mesoscale Discussion 1446
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

   Areas affected...central and eastern Utah into western Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271843Z - 272115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage from Utah
   into western Colorado, with areas of severe wind or hail possibly

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar shows storms already
   developing over the higher terrain, with occasional signs of brief
   hail over southwest UT. Precipitable water values around around
   1.00" over the entire region, which when combined with heating is
   resulting in over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.

   While the main shortwave trough will move north of the area,
   midlevel westerlies will increase to over 40 kt, elongating
   hodographs. Combined with steepening lapse rates, this should prove
   favorable for cells or small bows capable of damaging winds and
   marginal hail.

   As remaining inhibition is erased this afternoon, storms are likely
   to proceed across the lower elevations and sustain. As such, a watch
   is being considered.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37111299 38251251 38521257 38711286 38801370 39351368
               39821311 40471164 40851056 41050943 40920865 40580815
               40050776 39460749 38620740 37840779 37320973 37111299 

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