Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1446

   Mesoscale Discussion 1446
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...central to northeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...

   Valid 022053Z - 022230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells across northeast Iowa will
   continue this afternoon and into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered large hail and wind gusts have been reported
   across northeast Iowa this afternoon with a cluster of supercells.
   Additional development continues on the southwest flank where
   dewpoints are in the mid 70s with temperatures near 90 F, yielding
   MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Mid-level flow around 40
   to 45 knots (sampled by the KDMX VWP) is supporting supercell
   structures and will continue to assist in updraft rotation this
   afternoon and evening. The orientation of the storms and updraft
   collisions may limit the overall severe threat somewhat. However,
   the environment will continue to support large hail and severe wind
   gusts late this afternoon and into the evening.

   ..Bentley.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42259340 42819185 43459058 42969035 42549024 42089066
               41609195 41529277 41609338 41829358 42259340 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN