Mesoscale Discussion 1446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Areas affected...central and eastern Utah into western Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271843Z - 272115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage from Utah
into western Colorado, with areas of severe wind or hail possibly
developing.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar shows storms already
developing over the higher terrain, with occasional signs of brief
hail over southwest UT. Precipitable water values around around
1.00" over the entire region, which when combined with heating is
resulting in over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
While the main shortwave trough will move north of the area,
midlevel westerlies will increase to over 40 kt, elongating
hodographs. Combined with steepening lapse rates, this should prove
favorable for cells or small bows capable of damaging winds and
marginal hail.
As remaining inhibition is erased this afternoon, storms are likely
to proceed across the lower elevations and sustain. As such, a watch
is being considered.
..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 37111299 38251251 38521257 38711286 38801370 39351368
39821311 40471164 40851056 41050943 40920865 40580815
40050776 39460749 38620740 37840779 37320973 37111299