Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1444

   Mesoscale Discussion 1444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

   Valid 022038Z - 022245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 continues until 8 PM CDT.
   Storms in the watch area will be capable of damaging wind gusts of
   55-70 MPH.

   DISCUSSION...As expected given the lack of upper-level flow,
   thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama have been
   largely disorganized. However, given steep lapse rates, modest
   precipitable water content, and tall mixed-layer LCL heights near 2
   km, wet microburst activity is possible with the strongest downdraft
   cores. These microbursts could be capable of damaging winds of 55-70
   MPH. Since there is little in the way of convective organization,
   the expectation is that convective activity will diminish after
   sunset with the reduction in surface heating.

   ..Halbert.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36718890 36748797 36768688 36698641 36428619 35808599
               35198578 34668561 34398552 34248570 34198624 34188675
               34148717 34198762 34268801 34498828 35188851 35918868
               36488888 36718890 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN