Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1444

   Mesoscale Discussion 1444
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

   Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into northeast South
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271714Z - 271945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will likely erupt along the length of a surface
   trough after about 18Z, with isolated severe gusts possible.

   DISCUSSION...A front currently extends from northeast NC into
   northern SD, with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints to the south and
   toward the coast. Visible satellite imagery show ample heating
   occurring, which will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and strong
   instability.

   Modified morning soundings indicate tall CAPE profiles with MLCAPE
   in excess of 3000 J/kg, along with PWAT around 2 IN. Given the
   focused area for developing and favorable diurnal timing, a isolated
   severe storms cannot be ruled out with occasional wet microbursts.
   While shear is weak, sufficient westerlies aloft suggest storm that
   form inland will push across coastal areas later this afternoon,
   possibly remaining strong.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   33377879 33257934 33387972 33788011 34288019 34558002
               34697940 35177809 35887656 36267569 35787536 35217546
               34577645 33807796 33377879