Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1441

   Mesoscale Discussion 1441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 021930Z - 022100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The outflow boundary from this morning stalled across
   northern Illinois around mid-day and has started to lift north
   through the early afternoon. Expect this boundary to continue to
   move north as strong heating continues north of the boundary.
   Ongoing supercells to the west will continue to pose a large hail
   and damaging wind threat as they straddle the boundary, moving east
   this afternoon and into the evening. A locally higher tornado threat
   may exist along this boundary, especially if any supercells can
   latch on to it. Given current trends with storms to the west, a
   downstream watch will likely be needed by 4 PM, but if storms
   develop farther east along the boundary, a watch may be needed
   earlier.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43469064 43668961 43628765 43188769 42468767 41968748
               42178889 42299012 42339057 43469064 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN