Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1441

   Mesoscale Discussion 1441
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470...

   Valid 270127Z - 270300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 470
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds remain possible with a
   supercell in North Texas. Southern extent of the threat is not
   clear. Watch extensions will need to be considered if trends
   warrant.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell near Denison/Sherman has generally been
   moving south-southwestward roughly along an outflow boundary. This
   storm will likely continue into the mid evening. So far, 1 inch hail
   has been reported with this storm. MLCIN has been increasing to the
   south over the last hour. However, with an established supercell, it
   will take time to have a negative impact on the storm. The outflow
   boundary drapes southward trough western portions of the Metroplex.
   The observed 00Z FWD showed modest MLCIN along with steep mid-level
   lapse rates and 34 kts of effective shear. It is not clear whether
   this storm will persist far enough to impact DFW proper, but it is
   possible. Trends will need to be monitored for possible watch
   extensions farther south.

   ..Wendt.. 06/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33199630 32829647 32699678 32689709 32819728 33409735
               33759732 33919711 34149670 34049652 33749627 33199630