Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1437

   Mesoscale Discussion 1437
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma into Northeast
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262339Z - 270115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
   The tornado threat is conditional, but present. Depending on
   convective trends, a watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating near an outflow boundary has promoted
   storm development in the last 30 minutes. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
   2500-3000 J/kg) and 45-50 kts of effective shear will promote
   organized storms. The primary hazards will be large hail (up to 2
   inches in diameter in the strongest storms) and severe wind gusts.
   The tornado risk does appear to be low, but is not zero. A mature
   storm far enough east into the outflow, where LCLs are lower and
   winds modestly more backed, could produce a tornado. The risk is
   quite conditional, however. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain as
   well given the departing mid-level trough to the east.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33969711 34429658 34319596 33449530 32759541 32619590
               32719646 32869678 33969711