Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1436

   Mesoscale Discussion 1436
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle...South Plains...southwest
   Oklahoma and western North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262319Z - 270045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts and isolated marginal hail are
   possible late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated storm
   coverage is expected to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along an outflow boundary where
   temperatures along and near it have risen into the low 100s F. Shear
   is not overly strong, particularly with western extent, but
   southerly surface winds and modest northerly mid-level flow has
   contributed to around 30-35 kts of effective shear. Very steep lapse
   rates through about 3 km and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will
   foster some risk of severe wind gusts (via evaporative cooling) as
   storms intensify and then collapse. If storms can cluster, a locally
   greater wind threat would exist. Currently this appears possible in
   southwest Oklahoma into parts of western North Texas. Additionally,
   some clustering could occur out of convection in the northwest Texas
   Panhandle and move south/southeast into the greater buoyancy.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34370296 34930287 35310241 35399980 34749835 34329828
               33839853 33549943 33730118 33860208 34200277 34370296