Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1436

   Mesoscale Discussion 1436
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...northern Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021605Z - 021730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The large hail/damaging wind threat will increase late
   this morning and into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has recently increased along a frontal
   boundary across northern Iowa this morning in response to an
   approaching mid-level shortwave trough. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
   the environment along and south of this front is nearly uncapped
   with 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ongoing storms are likely elevated,
   but given continued heating, they may become surface-based in the
   next 1 to 2 hours. Either way, there is sufficient MUCAPE in the
   area. This instability, combined with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level
   flow, will support a supercell threat late this morning and into the
   early afternoon.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42619503 43059478 43409402 43469305 43489102 43328999
               42589015 42299226 42239425 42359507 42619503 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN