Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1435

   Mesoscale Discussion 1435
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast CO into the southern NE Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020658Z - 020900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to locally severe storms are ongoing across
   parts of northeast CO as of 0655 UTC. Moist low-level easterly flow
   beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting moderate to locally
   strong buoyancy, with objectively analyzed MUCAPE values ranging
   from around 1000 J/kg north of Greeley to greater than 2000 J/kg
   into far northeast CO. Veering wind profiles and modest
   southwesterly flow aloft are resulting in effective shear of 30-40
   kt, supportive of organized convection. 

   Strong multicells and perhaps a supercell or two will remain
   possible through the early overnight, with a threat of large hail
   and localized strong/severe gusts. Thus far, storms have been
   relatively slow-moving, with a tendency toward some cell
   interference. This trend may continue, resulting in a generally
   isolated threat and making the need for a watch uncertain. However,
   watch issuance may be considered if trends support a greater
   coverage of severe threat overnight.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40260520 40900444 41140346 41190292 41030238 40820248
               40450284 40200335 40080453 40080494 40260520 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN