Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1432

   Mesoscale Discussion 1432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0843 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433...

   Valid 020143Z - 020345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Upscale-growing thunderstorm clusters should promote an
   increasing risk of severe wind gusts over the next few hours --
   within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier high-based thunderstorms are beginning to
   increase in coverage and intensity as they spread/develop
   northeastward along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface boundary in western
   KS. Here, richer boundary-layer moisture and steep midlevel lapse
   rates are contributing to strong surface-based buoyancy (per the 00Z
   DDC sounding). The GLD VWP is sampling around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear
   (likely weaker with southward extent), which combined with the
   strong buoyancy, should promote convective clustering and an
   increasing risk of severe wind gusts over the next few hours.

   ..Weinman.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37740228 39100195 39620142 39830112 39930044 39790002
               39449985 38510014 37810049 37380104 37300164 37380207
               37740228 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN