Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1430

   Mesoscale Discussion 1430
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0707 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of north-central New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432...

   Valid 020007Z - 020130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms entering north-central New York
   may bring additional potential for occasionally damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed within a
   bullseye of locally greater buoyancy across portions of southern
   Ontario over the past couple of hours and is now progressing towards
   the St. Lawrence River and north-central New York. The exact
   evolution of this cluster remains uncertain as observations indicate
   greater low-level stability is in place immediately downstream to
   the east owing to prior convection. Greater buoyancy remains in
   place farther south, however, where convection has been more
   isolated and has not substantially stabilized the low-levels. The
   most likely scenario would be for this cluster to progress more
   southeastward along the surface theta-e gradient, with a gradual
   weakening of the northern edge and maintenance along the southern
   periphery. Regardless of the exact evolution, at least some
   potential for occasionally damaging wind gusts is likely to
   accompany this cluster over the next hour or two across
   north-central New York.

   ..Chalmers.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   45027575 45017538 44817490 44427447 43867407 43377384
               42977382 42797408 42687452 42587500 42577543 42727615
               42917638 43337648 43757652 44307658 44587639 44727620
               45027575 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN