Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1426

   Mesoscale Discussion 1426
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Areas affected...parts of northern Ohio into much of central
   Pennsylvania and northward towards the 42nd parallel/New York border

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261632Z - 261900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase within a developing frontal
   zone from northern Ohio into Pennsylvania. Scattered damaging gusts
   may eventually materialize,

   DISCUSSION...Surface map shows a diffuse frontal zone over northern
   IN/OH and extending toward the NY/PA border where the theta-e
   gradient is more pronounced. Storms are forming along the deeper
   portion of the front over IN/OH, despite substantial clouds/limited
   heating. GPS sensors indicate up to 1.75" PWAT in that area which is
   aiding destabilization.  

   Farther east, stronger heating is noted over far northeast OH into
   much of PA and NY, with a clear CU field south of the NY/PA border.
   This area will continue to heat in advance of increasing development
   upstream.

   Large-scale lift will continue to increase along the front as a
   shortwave trough approaches from the west. As such, a gradual
   increase in storm coverage and strength is expected mainly after
   18Z, with scattered damaging gusts most likely as deep-layer mean
   winds increase.

   ..Jewell.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40867688 40377770 40078035 40258244 40718333 41308350
               41718323 42297977 42407901 42167690 41747638 40867688