Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1425

   Mesoscale Discussion 1425
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

   Valid 012052Z - 012245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An environment favorable for strong/severe downburst winds
   remains in place across portions of northeast Alabama and northwest
   Georgia.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, the highest
   concentration of thunderstorms has largely remained across
   north-central to northwest AL with an expanding cold pool noted in
   recent surface observations and RTMA analyses. To the east of this
   area, more isolated convection has largely left the environment
   across northeast AL into northwest GA largely intact with
   temperatures remaining in the mid 90s, low-level lapse rates near 8
   C/km, and MLCAPE values between 3500-4000 J/kg. A thunderstorm
   cluster west of the Atlanta metro has recently demonstrated an
   uptick in intensity (per GOES IR imagery and lightning trends),
   which confirms that this environment remains favorable for robust
   deep convection. While it remains unclear exactly how widespread
   thunderstorm coverage will become through the evening hours, the
   potential for strong to severe downbursts and clustering/upscale
   growth remains across eastern portions of WW 430.

   ..Moore.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34938532 34988434 34868384 34258359 33708385 33348435
               32898512 32818543 32898575 33048597 33488610 34188624
               34468624 34668606 34818571 34938532 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN