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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1425

Mesoscale Discussion 1425
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1425
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern/Central OK...Northern/Central
   AR...South-Central MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462...463...

   Valid 261250Z - 261415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462, 463

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts, generally from 45 to 60 mph, is
   expected to continue. A downstream watch may eventually be needed
   later this morning if the line is able to reintensify.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing convective line has lost some of its
   structure over the past hour or so as the outflow surges southward.
   Recent SGF VAD sampled the rear-inflow jet, which appears to have
   lost strength in the last hour as well. These observations are
   evidence of a decaying MCS, although XNA did gust to 46 kt as the
   line came through around 12Z. Correspondingly, damaging gusts will
   remain possible across northwest/north-central AR and south-central
   MO as the outflow continues progressing southward/southeastward.

   In contrast, thunderstorms have been able to maintain their
   intensity within western portions of the convective line moving
   across northeast OK. Gusts from 45 to 60 mph have been observed as
   this outflow surges southwestward. This trend is expected to
   continue for the next hour or two, with the gust front eventually
   surging ahead of the deeper convection as it enters central OK.

   Some intensification of this line is possible later this morning as
   the very moist airmass destabilizes quickly under modest heating. A
   downstream watch may be needed if trends indicate this
   intensification is underway.

   ..Mosier.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36099716 36729590 36549479 36459370 36629282 36799231
               37069202 37289166 37319123 37039093 36459105 35889151
               35029234 33949429 34729637 36099716 

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