US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1423

   Mesoscale Discussion 1423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

   Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast KS...Far Northeast
   OK...Southwest MO...Far Northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462...

   Valid 260835Z - 261000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain possible across east-central KS and
   west-central MO. Additional severe potential may extend south into
   portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far northeast OK, and
   far northwest AR, and trends are being monitored for a possible

   DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway across eastern
   KS as a southeastward-progressing convective line begins to interact
   with a more southward-progressing line ahead of it. This
   southward-progressing line is also interacting with more cellular,
   warm-air advection thunderstorms that extend from east-central KS
   into far northeast OK. The quickest forward motion exists with the
   southeastward-progressing line over northeast KS, and the general
   expectation is for this line to remain dominant as it continues
   southeastward, with perhaps a shift to a more southerly motion once
   it encounters the warm-air advection responsible for the
   east-central/southeast KS cellular development. However, strong
   updrafts exist in the Kansas City vicinity (along the western edge
   of the southward-progressing line), and there is some potential this
   portion begins to surge southward as it interacts with the warm-air
   advection to its south.

   In either case, portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far
   northeast OK, and far northwest AR may eventually be impacted by
   whatever evolves. As a result, convective trends are being monitored
   for a potential watch. Until this line arrives, isolated hail is
   possible within the more cellular storms across the region.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38829645 38839473 35949299 35489593 37439662 38829645 

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