Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1420

   Mesoscale Discussion 1420
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Western Alabama to central and northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

   Valid 011933Z - 012130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Watch issuance is likely across central to northern
   Mississippi and thunderstorms spread west.

   DISCUSSION...The potential for severe winds may be increasing across
   northwest Alabama where two loosely organized convective clusters
   will likely interact and grow upscale in the coming hours. Both of
   these clusters are exhibiting continued re-development along their
   western outflows per regional radar imagery, and are propagating
   into an air mass that is very favorable for strong/severe downbursts
   (characterized by MLCAPE of around 4000 J/kg as well as steep
   low-level lapse rates on the order of 8 to 8.5 C/km). Consequently,
   the collision of these two clusters may result in a more focused
   corridor of thunderstorm development with a more robust/consolidated
   cold pool and a higher potential for damaging/severe winds. 25-30
   knot mid-level flow continues to be sampled by regional VWPs, which
   should help any resulting cluster propagate downstream into
   northeast MS through late afternoon. 

   Concurrently, additional thunderstorm development is noted along the
   MS/AL border with more shallow convective showers noted across
   central MS within a similar thermodynamic environment. Continued
   convective development is anticipated with this activity with an
   attendant threat for sporadic downburst winds. Severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance is expected in the coming hours across
   central/northern MS to address these concerns.

   ..Moore.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34968846 34788730 34528686 34078670 33548671 33098707
               32708790 32588846 32548933 32678997 32929054 33299072
               33769068 34249051 34679012 34868973 34968925 34998862
               34968846 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN