Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1420

   Mesoscale Discussion 1420
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...northeastern
   Kansas...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 260413Z - 260515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms over portions of Nebraska
   and southern Iowa should expand southeastward and increase in
   coverage over the next few hours.  New WW -- extending into
   northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, will be needed
   shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows clusters of strong/severe
   storms from north-central Nebraska to southwestern Iowa, moving
   steadily southeastward.  With a moderately unstable airmass (3000 to
   3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) ahead
   of the convection into Kansas/Missouri, and a moderate southwesterly
   low-level jet observed, continued southeasterly advance of the
   convection is expected.  With this area beneath the
   leading/expanding edge of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow,
   storms should organize/grow upscale with time, propagating southward
   with attendant risks for large hail and damaging winds.  The
   anticipated/expanding risk will warrant new WW issuance shortly.

   ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38559430 38839636 39669721 41009719 41499708 40849273
               39109251 38729296 38559430