Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1417

   Mesoscale Discussion 1417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...southwestern and south-central South Dakota and
   into north-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

   Valid 260013Z - 260145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging winds continues locally,
   with greatest risk in the short term apparent over the southwestern
   South Dakota vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a storm moving southeastward
   out of Jackson County into Bennett County South Dakota at this time.
    This cell emerged from a cluster of weaker convection east of the
   Black Hills, but has intensified and organized rapidly over the past
   hour into a supercell with HP characteristics as it encounters an
   axis of greater boundary-layer moisture/mixed-layer CAPE.  Along
   with potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail in excess of 2"
   in diameter is likely with this cell, as it moves southeastward at
   near 40 kt.

   Elsewhere, more isolated/potentially severe storms will likewise
   continue moving southeastward over the next 1 to 2 hours, with large
   hail and locally damaging winds possible in/near WW 458.

   ..Goss.. 06/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43590275 43890158 43409959 42059933 41800060 42470202
               43050267 43590275