US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1415

   Mesoscale Discussion 1415
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle eastward into western and
   northern Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252328Z - 260130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Local risk for hail generally at or below golf ball size,
   and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH will be possible early this
   evening.  WW issuance not anticipated, due to the very isolated
   nature of this risk.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of small clusters of
   storms -- one in the Texas Panhandle north of Amarillo, and the
   other near the Kansas/Oklahoma border area -- in the western Osage
   County Oklahoma vicinity.

   The convection is occurring in conjunction with very
   subtle/southeastward-moving ripples in the mid-level northwesterly
   flow aloft, where a hot/moist boundary layer is contributing to 1500
   to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.  However, with shear across this
   region rather modest, organization should remain limited to
   multicell clustering.  Some CAMs hint at a couple of hours of
   upscale growth potential evolving with the western cluster, as a
   southerly low-level jet develops across this area, and given
   mid-level north-northwesterlies, southward propagation would be
   possible.  Still, potential for damaging winds -- even in this
   scenario -- would likely to remain sufficiently low so as to
   preclude the need for WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34910227 35510226 35990160 36140045 36589943 37369778
               37339702 36769587 36209564 35889572 35509843 34629945
               34570122 34910227 

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