Mesoscale Discussion 1414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Areas affected...East-central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252243Z - 252345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
through this evening across portions of east-central MO. Hail up to
1-1.75" in diameter, and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will
accompany them.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from around the area indicates
several robust updrafts have developed along and near an outflow
boundary, where surface convergence is being maximized. Surface
observations with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints
in the low 70s, beneath mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, are
yielding MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg. Although deep layer flow is
fairly weak, which should limit overall persistent storm
organization, very large CAPE within the hail growth zone is
present. Slow storm motions should limit interactions/mergers for
another hour or so, allowing deep, robust updrafts to remain present
and the opportunity for severe hail production to continue. In
addition, steep low-level lapse rates/large DCAPE will support wet
microbursts. This will especially be true as thunderstorms begin to
merge from the west and east. Trends will be monitored for upscale
growth, and the potential of more numerous damaging wind gusts. A WW
is possible.
..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38889279 39099277 39289246 39399229 39469195 39589158
39419133 39189102 38909076 38699054 38489034 38219034
37839077 37879169 37869259 38149276 38569282 38889279