US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1414

   Mesoscale Discussion 1414
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...East-central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252243Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue
   through this evening across portions of east-central MO. Hail up to
   1-1.75" in diameter, and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will
   accompany them.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from around the area indicates
   several robust updrafts have developed along and near an outflow
   boundary, where surface convergence is being maximized. Surface
   observations with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints
   in the low 70s, beneath mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, are
   yielding MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg. Although deep layer flow is
   fairly weak, which should limit overall persistent storm
   organization, very large CAPE within the hail growth zone is
   present. Slow storm motions should limit interactions/mergers for
   another hour or so, allowing deep, robust updrafts to remain present
   and the opportunity for severe hail production to continue. In
   addition, steep low-level lapse rates/large DCAPE will support wet
   microbursts. This will especially be true as thunderstorms begin to
   merge from the west and east. Trends will be monitored for upscale
   growth, and the potential of more numerous damaging wind gusts. A WW
   is possible.

   ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38889279 39099277 39289246 39399229 39469195 39589158
               39419133 39189102 38909076 38699054 38489034 38219034
               37839077 37879169 37869259 38149276 38569282 38889279 

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