Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1414

   Mesoscale Discussion 1414
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0828 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011328Z - 011500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across northern
   Michigan.

   DISCUSSION...A small but organized bowing segment has developed
   across central Wisconsin with a measured 53 knot wind gust at KOSH
   and several reports of wind damage across the area. This storm will
   likely undergo some weakening as it crosses the relatively cooler
   waters over Lake Michigan. However, an unstable and uncapped airmass
   is already present across northern Michigan with 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE
   and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s per APX 12Z RAOB. In addition,
   41 knots of effective shear will continue to support storm
   organization. Therefore, even if the bow weakens somewhat over the
   lake, reintensification across northern Michigan seems possible,
   especially given broken skies and additional surface heating this
   morning. Given the warm, moist airmass, severe/damaging winds would
   be the primary hazard. Trends will be monitored as this cluster
   crosses Lake Michigan and if it maintains strength or signs of
   imminent re-intensification across northern Michigan appear likely,
   a watch may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44028648 44438727 44988672 45698539 45848471 45738428
               45598395 45378358 44868336 44508418 44148612 44028648 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN