Mesoscale Discussion 1412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252048Z - 252245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely in the TX Panhandle into W OK later this afternoon. A few isolated damaging wind gusts and hail reports are possible, but overall coverage of severe weather is expected to remain low, meaning watch issuance is not likely at this time. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows vertical development of boundary-layer cumulus has increased over the Texas Panhandle in the last 1.5-2 hours, suggesting that convective initiation may be likely in the next hour or two. This cumulus is in the vicinity of a weak surface low, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s F, and dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s F in the northwest panhandle to mid 60s F near the TX/OK border, resulting in MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg. Deep layer vertical shear is strongest in the Northern TX Panhandle into W OK, with values around 35 kts, decreasing with southwestward extent. Given the hot, dry boundary layer, and weak to modest vertical shear, a few isolated damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow may be possible this afternoon into the evening. Eastward extent of convection is uncertain at this time, but given the better combination of shear and buoyancy over W OK, a few isolated hail reports are possible with any storms that develop. However, overall coverage of severe weather is expected to be low. Given the lack of support for organized convection, and uncertainty in eastward extent of convection with the better environment, watch issuance is not likely. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35839821 35539840 35339876 35049931 34889994 34780045 34790080 34790127 34890184 35120242 35400270 35690260 35970213 36210156 36400111 36560062 36700007 36869905 36899847 36369820 35839821