US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1412

   Mesoscale Discussion 1412
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252048Z - 252245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely in the TX
   Panhandle into W OK later this afternoon. A few isolated damaging
   wind gusts and hail reports are possible, but overall coverage of
   severe weather is expected to remain low, meaning watch issuance is
   not likely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows vertical development of
   boundary-layer cumulus has increased over the Texas Panhandle in the
   last 1.5-2 hours, suggesting that convective initiation may be
   likely in the next hour or two. This cumulus is in the vicinity of a
   weak surface low, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s to low
   100s F, and dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s F in the northwest
   panhandle to mid 60s F near the TX/OK border, resulting in MLCAPE >
   1000 J/kg. Deep layer vertical shear is strongest in the Northern TX
   Panhandle into W OK, with values around 35 kts, decreasing with
   southwestward extent. 

   Given the hot, dry boundary layer, and weak to modest vertical
   shear, a few isolated damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow
   may be possible this afternoon into the evening. Eastward extent of
   convection is uncertain at this time, but given the better
   combination of shear and buoyancy over W OK, a few isolated hail
   reports are possible with any storms that develop. However, overall
   coverage of severe weather is expected to be low. 

   Given the lack of support for organized convection, and uncertainty
   in eastward extent of convection with the better environment, watch
   issuance is not likely.

   ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35839821 35539840 35339876 35049931 34889994 34780045
               34790080 34790127 34890184 35120242 35400270 35690260
               35970213 36210156 36400111 36560062 36700007 36869905
               36899847 36369820 35839821 

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