Mesoscale Discussion 1411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Areas affected...southern Indiana...far southwest Ohio...and
northern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251957Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms across western Indiana may produce
some damaging wind gusts across eastern Indiana, northern Kentucky,
and far southwest Ohio this evening.
DISCUSSION...The airmass ahead of a storm cluster in western Indiana
continues to destabilize with SPC mesoanalysis suggesting an
uncapped warm sector. As long as the airmass ahead of this cluster
continues to destabilize, at least some damaging wind threat is
expected to persist. Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed across southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and southwest
Ohio.
However, uncertainties remain. The outflow boundary from the morning
continues to move south and it is possible this will undercut the
storms which could weaken them. Visible satellite and the KIND
WSR-88D also show a showing trend of this outflow boundary slowing
over the past hour. Therefore, this boundary may provide the focused
corridor for the threat.
Additionally, some storms have developed along this boundary in
southeast Indiana. This is east of the greatest instability and
thus, these storms will likely remain below severe limits.
Trends of upstream convection and development along the outflow
boundary will be monitored for a potential downstream watch.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 38078701 38678680 39228642 39628600 39148410 38588413
37838489 37778605 38078701