Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1408

   Mesoscale Discussion 1408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Kansas and
   adjacent southern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

   Valid 010133Z - 010330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The ongoing convective system may tend to weaken, but
   renewed strong to severe thunderstorm development might continue to
   develop into and northeast of Hill City and the Kansas/Nebraska
   state border vicinity through late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Notable low-level drying is ongoing across much of
   southern through eastern Kansas, as a remnant narrow plume of higher
   moisture content returns northwestward toward the Front Range
   through southern portions of the mid Missouri Valley, in advance of
   weak larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging into the West. 
   It remains unclear how this will impact the ongoing convective
   cluster.  However, the cold pool associated with this cluster is
   beginning to surge eastward out ahead of the stronger convection on
   its southern flank, to the north of Dodge City, and may tend to
   continue to propagate into the drier/substantively stabilizing
   environment.  The MCV appears to be maintaining a
   north-northeastward migration toward the Hill City vicinity, and
   forcing for ascent to its northeast could support renewing vigorous
   thunderstorm within the southern fringe of the higher moisture
   content/strong potential instability across and north of the
   Kansas/Nebraska border into mid to late evening.

   ..Kerr.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39740092 40210026 40299895 38519924 38409994 38620010
               39150033 39740092 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN