Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1406

   Mesoscale Discussion 1406
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...Far southeast WI...Southern Lower MI...Northern
   IL...Far Northern IN...Far Northwest OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...456...

   Valid 251128Z - 251300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455, 456
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts will extend into more of
   southern Lower Michigan and adjacent northern Indiana and far
   northwest Ohio over the next two hours. Damaging wind gusts will
   also remain possible across far southeast Wisconsin and northern
   IL/Chicagoland.

   DISCUSSION...An organized MCS continues to push southeastward across
   central/southern Lake Michigan and southern Lower MI. Recent storm
   motion was estimated at 45 kt within the surging portion of the line
   near GRR, which is a bit slower than estimates two hours ago.
   Western portions of the MCS have trended slower and more southerly.
   Updrafts along the leading edge of the MCS are still quite strong,
   and the general expectation is for the threat for damaging gusts to
   persist for at least the next two hours as the system moves from
   southern Lower MI into northern IN and far northwest OH. Current
   storm motion brings the line into northern IN and far northwest OH
   around 1230Z.

   Farther west, thunderstorm coverage has increased across northern IL
   and far southeast WI, with the northern extent for this development
   now interacting with the outflow from the MCS. Some linear
   organization may be underway with these storms, supported by 40 to
   50 kt mid-level flow and associated moderate deep-layer vertical
   shear. Storm motion is around 40 kt, bringing these storms into the
   Chicago area around 12 to 1230Z. Primary severe risk is damaging
   gusts.

   ..Mosier.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   43188833 43378650 43268428 42148362 41208388 40878580
               41128976 41499057 43188833