Mesoscale Discussion 1406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming...southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010014Z - 010215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including evolving supercells posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado, through 8-10 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence has become focused north of the Palmer Divide to the northeast of Denver, with a focused area of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection developing northward into the Cheyenne Ridge. The stronger warm advection is forecast to slowly shift across and east-northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge through 02-04Z, downstream of a notable short wave trough progressing northeast of the Wasatch. Large-scale ascent has been supporting increasing convective development off the Front Range to the northeast of Denver, as boundary layer moisture return on east-southeasterly near-surface flow gradually contributes to destabilization across the adjacent plains. Though inhibition beneath warm mid-levels will begin to result in increasing inhibition for boundary-layer parcels, further moistening will contribute to increasingly sizable potential instability. Within the stronger large-scale ascent, the environment is likely to become conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong shear. This may include supercells initially, then an organizing and upscale growing cluster later this evening and overnight. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41260356 41850093 40440193 39830310 41260356 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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