Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1403

   Mesoscale Discussion 1403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern WI into Central Lake Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...455...

   Valid 250716Z - 250845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454, 455
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain possible across central and eastern
   Wisconsin, particularly from Marathon and Shawano Counties into
   Outagamie and Brown during the next hour. Isolated hail is also
   possible within any development ahead of the line.

   DISCUSSION...Convective line moving southeastward across central WI
   has shown a trend towards better linear organization over the past
   hour or so. A notable forward surge has recently become more evident
   from Lincoln into Marathon Counties. Velocity data from KGRB shows
   strong inbounds indicating a rear-inflow jet across the same
   counties. As a result, corridor downstream from this portion of the
   line likely has the highest potential for damaging wind gusts during
   the next hour or so. Main uncertainty is whether or not the rear
   inflow and associated strong gusts can penetrate the layer of
   low-level stability, allowing for gusts to reach the surface.
   Current motion within this portion of the line is estimated at 45 to
   50 kt, which takes this portion of the line to near Green Bay around
   0830Z and to the western shore of central Lake Michigan around
   0900Z. There is some potential for the line to accelerate, bringing
   the strong gusts to this areas sooner.

   Isolated hail will remain possible with any storms that develop
   within the warm-air advection wing that precedes the convective
   line.

   ..Mosier.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44569128 45229040 45578828 45378683 44928630 43428706
               43358885 44569128