Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1401

   Mesoscale Discussion 1401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...South-central and Southeast New York into Western
   Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...

   Valid 302032Z - 302230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and large hail continues
   across southern parts of the watch area. That threat may develop
   south of the current watch area by 22Z, requiring either an areal
   extension of the existing watch or a new downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...Renewed thunderstorm development has recently occurred
   along the legacy cold pool across portions of Saratoga, Schenectady,
   and Montgomery Counties with more discrete storms persisting into
   Otsego County as of 20:20Z. A slight increase in inbound base
   velocities has been noted by the KENX radar, and given these trends,
   damaging wind potential may increase over the next hour with the
   re-strengthening bowing system.

   Assuming that scenario unfolds, the severe weather threat would
   potentially move out of the watch area by 22Z, requiring either a
   watch extension or new watch.

   ..Mead.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42647686 42877689 43257484 43297397 42847337 41907311
               41627378 41637506 41757578 42197661 42647686 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN