Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 140

   Mesoscale Discussion 0140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle into
   western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

   Valid 060045Z - 060245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk for all severe hazards over
   the next 1-2 hours as they progress east/northeastward across the
   eastern Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Developing thunderstorms have struggled to become
   better established across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle
   over the past hour amidst residual capping and weak synoptic-scale
   forcing. While it remains unclear as to how many supercells will
   develop, the latest guidance and radar observations continue to
   suggest that at least a couple of supercells will become better
   established over the coming 1-2 hours as mid-level capping continues
   to erode. An unstable environment characterized by MLCAPE of
   1500-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts will then
   support a risk of all severe hazards. Steep mid-level lapse rates
   exceeding 7.5 C/km and an initial discrete storm mode will support
   the potential for large hail to 3" in diameter. With time, a
   strengthening low-level jet is expected to yielding enlarged
   low-level hodographs, which would bring an increased tornado threat
   into the early overnight hours.

   ..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35269867 34909874 34639881 34449909 34349948 34309986
               34270039 34260084 34400117 34700149 35050148 35520086
               35900034 36079981 36019912 35709873 35269867 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN