Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1399

   Mesoscale Discussion 1399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...southeast
   Colorado...southwest Kansas...the western Oklahoma Panhandle...and
   far northwest Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301943Z - 302145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this
   afternoon/evening across portions of the southern High Plains.

   DISCUSSION...A storm has developed in Union County, New Mexico this
   afternoon where 50s dewpoints have backed up into the higher
   terrain. Visible satellite imagery also suggests additional
   development may occur north of this storm near the Raton Mesa. SPC
   mesoanalysis shows around 35 to 40 knots of effective shear across
   the area. The PUX VWP is sampling around 40 to 45 knots at 4-5km
   which would support the 35 to 40 knot shear values farther
   southeast. This shear, combined with weak to moderate instability
   will support the potential for supercell structures and some hail
   threat. Through time, expect storms to grow upscale as they move
   east into a more unstable airmass with an increasing severe wind
   threat into the evening.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36150353 36710369 36940373 37910305 38590251 38670171
               38400140 37610143 36490221 36130297 36150353 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN