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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1399

Mesoscale Discussion 1399
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and far east central North

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

   Valid 250053Z - 250230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452

   SUMMARY...Severe threats of large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter
   and wind gusts near 60-70 mph continue with thunderstorms along a
   cold front this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing along and just ahead of a
   cold front over northern MN. These thunderstorms are within an
   environment where persistent deep layer shear vectors around 50 kt
   in magnitude are oriented nearly normal to the cold frontal forcing,
   suggesting discrete organized updrafts will continue through this
   evening. An instability axis also extends southwest to northeast
   along the cold front, with the most recent surface objective
   analysis indicating around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Further south
   along the front, several convective initiation attempts have
   occurred, but maintenance has been unsuccessful. This may be due to
   slightly warmer mid to upper-level temperatures and weaker flow
   aloft being present there. However, attempts are still ongoing and
   additional thunderstorm development with southward extent cannot be
   ruled out. In addition to large hail and damaging winds, the tornado
   threat is non-zero based on the latest RAP forecast curved
   hodographs through 1 km, although slightly veered surface flow ahead
   of the front should limit the overall ambient SRH.

   ..Barnes.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47299748 47669719 48299613 48869520 48989465 48779464
               48579381 48659322 48639282 48549261 48069314 46869441
               46659669 46649724 47299748 

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