Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1398

   Mesoscale Discussion 1398
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0701 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

   Areas affected...Far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250001Z - 250130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification will be possible over the
   next couple of hours across portions of far southwestern SD and
   northwestern NE. Isolated hail up to 1.00 to 1.75" in diameter and
   severe wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible with the more
   robust updrafts.

   DISCUSSION...Both recent satellite and radar imagery indicate
   updraft intensification is occurring with thunderstorms along a
   surface trough extending northwest to southeast across the higher
   terrain. This is also where a mid to upper-level thermal trough
   exits, coincident with stronger flow aloft. Deep layer effective
   shear around 35-45 kt will continue to support some updraft
   organization through this evening. In addition, downstream
   observations/objective surface analysis suggest these thunderstorms
   will move into a more buoyant air mass, although CINH does quickly
   increase further east across much of central NE/SD.

   The main threat through this evening will likely be severe wind
   gusts, considering large surface temperature-dewpoint
   spreads/inverted V profiles, especially with merging thunderstorms
   and deepening cold pools. Given the expected small area of severe
   weather concern, weak forcing aloft, and loss of diurnal heating, a
   WW appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43760299 43820314 43700376 43150335 42700273 42010254
               41780232 41410187 41390137 41640092 42070093 42970119
               43540194 43760299