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| Mesoscale Discussion 1395 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the Central High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242059Z - 242300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are
possible this afternoon and evening over the Central High Plains.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain in
an environment characterized by large surface T/Td spreads,
deeply-mixed inverted-v boundary layer profiles, and 25-30 kts of
deep-layer shear in the southern portion of the MD area, increasing
to 40-45 kts further north in the Black Hills.
These storms are expected to continue eastward into the High Plains,
where buoyancy increases slightly with eastward extent. Given the
dry environment and weak vertical shear, a few damaging wind gusts
from dry downdrafts are possible with ongoing convection, and
additional development may be possible with interacting thunderstorm
outflows.
Further north in the Black Hills, convective development is less
certain, but better combinations of buoyancy and shear indicate
potential for an isolated hail and damaging wind threat if a storm
develops out of the current cu field.
Watch issuance is not likely at this time, but convective trends
will continue to be monitored.
..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 44890339 44860289 44580245 44260226 43880219 43320214
42890207 42500192 41960142 41650117 41250090 40860062
40490042 40090026 39600017 39350027 39070043 38870060
38730085 38680119 38670161 38670181 38830205 38980218
39260237 39470253 39680266 39730271 40000320 40260353
40760405 41200450 41600478 42000499 42300513 42800530
43460551 43910558 44270551 44540514 44710477 44800434
44830385 44890339
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