Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1393

   Mesoscale Discussion 1393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0404 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...Southern MN into northern IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

   Valid 300904Z - 301030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
   continues.

   SUMMARY...At least localized severe gusts remain possible through
   dawn.

   DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a storm cluster over
   south-central MN has recently weakened, with CINH tending to weaken
   storms along the southern part of the cluster, and more stable
   conditions to the north of a frontal boundary constraining
   development within the northern part of the cluster. However, strong
   to severe gusts continue to be observed, most recently a 52 kt gust
   at KJYG in Watonwan County, MN. 

   Downstream of this cluster, a more favorable environment remains in
   place into southeast MN and southwest WI, with MUCAPE of near/above
   4000 J/kg and weaker CINH per recent objective mesoanalyses. Even if
   the ongoing cluster continues to weaken, some redevelopment and
   possible reorganization cannot be ruled out as the primary gust
   front/cold pool move into this environment. Some intensification of
   trailing convection across northwest IA also remains possible as it
   moves east-northeastward through the early morning.

   ..Dean.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44209496 44209496 44859439 45089397 45109341 44989286
               44919259 44659227 44129194 43599197 43359231 43309288
               43179465 43509497 43809498 43999496 44209496 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN