Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1390

   Mesoscale Discussion 1390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...parts of north central into northeastern Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 419...

   Valid 300304Z - 300500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 419 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for evolving supercells with potential to produce
   tornadoes will continue at least another couple of hours, into and
   through the 11 PM-midnight CDT time frame.

   DISCUSSION...A short wave perturbation now rapidly pivoting
   north-northeastward through the Dakotas is forecast to be
   accompanied by veering mid-level flow and northeastward progression
   of mid-level cooling across the remainder of north central through
   northeastern Minnesota during the next few hours.  It appears that
   this will outpace the northeastward retreat of a remnant outflow
   boundary/warm front, which the latest Rapid Refresh suggests will
   weaken into the overnight hours.

   It is not clear that forcing for ascent associated with warm
   advection along this boundary will be strong enough, and/or through
   a deep enough layer, to support a substantive upscale growing
   cluster.  However, as convective development remains largely
   discrete, the high boundary-layer moisture content and potential
   near-surface buoyancy along the boundary, could still support the
   risk for tornadoes in evolving supercells for at least a couple more
   hours, before veering flow in lower-levels leads to less conducive
   low-level hodographs.

   ..Kerr.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48169568 47419425 46389249 45909261 45939386 46579498
               47729615 48169568 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN