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Mesoscale Discussion 1390 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240332Z - 240600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Lingering isolated supercell development may approach the north central North Dakota international border area by 1-2 AM CDT, accompanied by continuing risk for large hail and locally strong surface gusts. But it seems probable that this activity will tend to weaken as it progresses south of the border overnight. DISCUSSION...The southernmost cell of an initial cluster of supercells over southern Saskatchewan has been maintaining considerable strength while steadily propagating east-southeastward within strongly sheared 35-40 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. It appears that this is being supported be seasonably moist updraft inflow, rooted within large-scale ascent associated with low-level warm advection, above a stable boundary layer to the east of the lee surface trough, but still characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Based on its current motion, it would begin propagating across the international border to the north of Minot by 06-07Z. However, the northern/northeastern periphery of a plume very warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is also in the process of advecting across this region, downstream of a mid/upper trough progressing across the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian Prairies. This may tend to finally suppress any stronger convection attempting to cross the international border. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 49960439 49890138 49159975 48470071 49000288 49130456 49960439 |
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