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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1388

Mesoscale Discussion 1388
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MD 1388 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0620 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

   Areas affected...the Allegheny Plateau/Allegheny Mountains vicinity

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

   Valid 232320Z - 240115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449

   SUMMARY...An appreciable increase in severe weather potential
   appears unlikely, but localized damaging wind gusts remain possible
   in isolated stronger cells spreading across and east of the
   Allegheny Mountains through 8-10 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Despite the development of fairly numerous
   thunderstorms across the Allegheny Plateau and mountains late this
   afternoon, activity has struggled to substantively intensify in the
   presence of rather modest deep tropospheric lapse rates, and
   relatively weak large-scale forcing for ascent.  It is not clear
   that this will change appreciably during the next few hours, as the
   boundary-layer gradually cools.  However, downward mixing of 30-40
   kt mean west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow in isolated
   stronger cells could continue to pose a risk for localized damaging
   wind gusts as activity advects eastward through 00-02Z.

   ..Kerr.. 06/23/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38988143 40178074 41957717 41957590 41277538 40237647
               39427775 38467947 38988143 

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