Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1388

   Mesoscale Discussion 1388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...parts of east central North Dakota...northwest
   through central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 300025Z - 300230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Developing supercells posing a risk for large hail and a
   couple strong tornadoes may increase through 9-11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Very moist boundary-layer air (including mid 70s F
   surface dew points) advecting into the vicinity of a deep surface
   low centered northeast of Bismarck is contributing to extreme
   potential instability beneath steep-lapse rates associated with a
   plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air.  However, a combination
   of subsidence aloft and inhibition associated with the elevated
   mixed-layer has slowed convective development to this point.  

   A recent increase in deepening convective development is finally
   underway near the leading edge of gradual weak cooling from the west
   in the 700-500 mb layer, as well as along a retreating downstream
   remnant outflow boundary/developing warm front, roughly centered
   northeast of Alexandria MN.  Particularly along the warm front,
   where a 40+ kt southerly 850 mb jet is contributing to sizable
   clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become
   increasingly conducive to supercells posing a risk for tornadoes. 
   The southern fringe of modest mid-level height falls, associated
   with a northeastward pivoting upstream short wave trough, may not
   begin impacting the area until 02-04Z, but it appears this threat
   could commence a bit earlier.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47409651 47589574 47199473 46969421 46179337 45709398
               45739472 45999554 46199593 46349642 46569674 47129691
               47409651 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN