Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1387

   Mesoscale Discussion 1387
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0703 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Wisconsin and the Michigan
   Upper Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...

   Valid 300003Z - 300130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail remain
   possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
   has appeared to undergo gradual weakening over the past 1-2 hours
   (likely due to increased MUCIN), with generally warming cloud tops
   and weakening reflectivity cores noted on satellite and radar
   imagery, respectively. This suggests that the overall severe risk
   has decreased, which is supported by the concurrent decrease in
   observed wind/hail reports over the same time span. 

   While the general expectation is for the severe threat to continue
   to decrease across this region, continued lower tropospheric warm
   air advection atop a surface stationary boundary may continue to
   support some potential for convective maintenance/redevelopment,
   particularly on the southern flank of the remnant MCS. While this
   scenario remains somewhat uncertain, moderately strong effective
   shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will conditionally continue to
   support a risk for isolated large hail with any stronger convection
   that can become sustained. Occasional damaging wind gusts also
   remain possible given the lingering influence of the MCS rear inflow
   jet (40-45 kts sampled at around 1000 kft AGL by KMQT) and the
   potential for isolated, stronger downdrafts to penetrate the
   near-surface stable layer and transport this momentum downward.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   46408909 46818885 47108851 47268783 47288696 47158627
               46968566 46828553 46548557 46148584 45778629 45508686
               45328749 45258796 45278851 45348911 45438949 45538960
               45908965 46408909 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN