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Mesoscale Discussion 1386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Areas affected...portions of central/southern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 292324Z - 300100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected over
the next 1-2 hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts towering
cumulus developing along a surface confluence zone in far northern
Kansas. The glancing influence of a passing mid-level shortwave
trough to the northwest and a strengthening southerly low-level jet
are expected to continue to promote the erosion of convective
inhibition (sampled by the 18z LBF observed sounding) and eventual
convective initiation over the next 1-2 hours.
Strong buoyancy and effective shear will promote supercells as the
initial storm mode, with large to very large hail as the primary
threat given steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs.
With time, the gradual coalescence of cold pools should favor
upscale growth, with an accompanying increase in the threat for
severe wind gusts. While convection is expected to remain largely
elevated owing to low-level stabilization with time, a tornado or
two may also be possible where storms can remain/become
surface-based. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the
next hour to cover these threats.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 41779734 41209740 40849759 40379803 39989873 39889962
40180005 40590014 41130005 41489983 41999922 42319869
42439808 42139762 41779734
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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