Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1385

   Mesoscale Discussion 1385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...southeast NY...northwest
   NJ...CT...and southern MA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231923Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for a few strong to severe
   storms this afternoon. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two
   appear to be the main concerns. Convective and environmental trends
   are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating within cloud breaks from eastern
   PA northeastward across southern New England is supporting steep
   low-level lapse rates amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. While
   large-scale ascent is generally weak across the area, convection
   approaching from the west and potentially new development along
   mesoscale/differential heating boundaries could become strong to
   severe, given 40 kt of deep-layer shear per regional VWP. Ample
   low/midlevel flow and the steepened low-level lapse rates will favor
   a damaging-wind risk, and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature
   could support a brief tornado or two with any sustained supercell
   structures. Overall, confidence in the development of persistent
   strong/severe updrafts is low owing to the weak forcing for ascent,
   though convective and environmental trends are being monitored for a
   possible watch this afternoon.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40567764 41927651 42667570 42767522 42707460 42197261
               42117118 41827107 41617114 41417205 41337260 41267332
               40707473 40077557 39857619 39887700 40157759 40567764